EXHIBIT G: The Mortality Index

DATE: March 14, 1977

TO: G. Robert Blakey, Chief Counsel

FROM: Richard E. Hartwell, FSA, MAAA

RE: Mortality Analysis — Material Witnesses, Kennedy Assassination (1963-1976)

FILE: HA-77-0342

ACTUARIAL RISK ASSESSMENT
THE DALLAS COHORT

I.SCOPE OF ANALYSIS

This analysis was commissioned to assess mortality patterns among individuals identified as material witnesses, persons of interest, or subjects of investigation in connection with the assassination of President John F. Kennedy on November 22, 1963.

The cohort ("Dallas Cohort") was assembled from Warren Commission witness lists, subsequent congressional inquiry records, and investigative files provided by the commissioning party. Individuals were included based on documented connection to the investigation, not speculation regarding involvement.

Cohort Parameters:

Initial cohort size: 67 individuals
Observation period: November 22, 1963 — December 31, 1976
Mean age at observation start: 41.3 years
Gender distribution: 58 male, 9 female

Purpose: To determine whether observed mortality within this population deviates significantly from actuarial expectations, and if so, to characterize the nature and magnitude of that deviation.

II.METHODOLOGY

Expected mortality was calculated using standard life tables (U.S. Population, 1960-1970, age-adjusted). Cause-of-death distributions were benchmarked against CDC vital statistics for the corresponding periods.

Statistical significance was assessed at the p < 0.05 threshold. Variance from expected values is expressed as percentage deviation and standard deviation from mean.

Deaths were categorized according to official cause of death as recorded on death certificates or medical examiner reports. In cases where official determinations were disputed or revised, the original ruling was used for consistency.

III.EXPECTED VS. ACTUAL MORTALITY

Period	Cohort Size	Expected Deaths	Actual Deaths	Variance
1963-1966	67	2.3	14	+508%
1967-1970	53	1.8	8	+344%
1971-1974	45	1.5	5	+233%
1975-1976	40	0.7	6	+757%

Note: Cohort size decreases each period due to prior deaths and natural attrition.

33 Deaths OBSERVED VS. 6.3 EXPECTED (1963-1976)

Cumulative mortality over the observation period: 33 deaths observed against 6.3 expected. This represents a variance of +424% from actuarial projections.

The probability of this variance occurring by chance in a random population sample is less than 1 in 10¹⁷.

IV.CAUSE OF DEATH ANALYSIS

Expected Distribution (U.S. General Population, 1960-1976):

Cause	Expected %	Dallas Cohort %	Ratio
Natural Causes	72%	30%	0.42x
Accident	15%	27%	1.8x
Suicide	8%	21%	2.6x
Homicide	5%	22%	4.4x

Anomalies Flagged:

Homicide rate: 4.4x general population
Suicide rate: 2.6x general population
Accident rate: 1.8x general population
Suicides occurring within 72 hours of scheduled testimony: 3 cases
Deaths ruled "natural" with disputed or absent autopsy: 4 cases

• • •

V.INDIVIDUAL CASE SUMMARIES

The following entries represent cases with notable timing, circumstance, or cause-of-death anomalies. This is not a complete list of cohort mortality.

KILGALLEN, Dorothy Mae

DOD: November 8, 1965

Age: 52

Cause: Barbiturate/alcohol combination (accidental)

Connection: Only journalist to conduct private interview with Jack Ruby

Pending: Book manuscript on assassination (never located)

Found in bed she never used, wearing clothes she had not worn the previous evening. Reading book she had finished days prior. Interview notes never recovered.

FERRIE, David William

DOD: February 22, 1967

Age: 48

Cause: Berry aneurysm (natural causes)

Connection: Garrison investigation primary subject; CAP association with Oswald

Pending: Grand jury subpoena served February 21, 1967

Two typed suicide notes found at scene. Death ruled natural. Subpoena served less than 24 hours before death.

GIANCANA, Salvatore "Sam"

DOD: June 19, 1975

Age: 67

Cause: Gunshot wounds (7), .22 caliber, to head and neck

Connection: CIA-Mafia assassination plots (Cuba); Robert Maheu contact

Pending: Church Committee testimony scheduled June 20, 1975

Shot from behind while cooking sausage in basement kitchen. Shooter entered through unlocked door. No signs of struggle. No arrest made.

ROSELLI, John

DOD: August 7, 1976 (approx.)

Age: 71

Cause: Asphyxiation, dismemberment; body in oil drum, Dumfoundling Bay, FL

Connection: CIA-Mafia plots; Church Committee witness

Pending: Scheduled follow-up testimony to Church Committee

Had testified to Church Committee in 1975. Told associates he believed CIA was "using the Mafia as a cover" for Kennedy assassination. Missing 10 days before body discovered.

DE MOHRENSCHILDT, George

DOD: March 29, 1977

Age: 65

Cause: Shotgun wound to head (ruled suicide)

Connection: Oswald's primary Dallas contact; introduced Oswald to Paine household

Pending: HSCA interview scheduled March 30, 1977

Received HSCA investigator Gaeton Fonzi's card hours before death. Had written to George H.W. Bush at CIA seeking a hearing from surveillance. Found by daughter.

RUBY, Jack Leon (né Rubenstein)

DOD: January 3, 1967

Age: 55

Cause: Pulmonary embolism secondary to lung cancer

Connection: Killed Lee Harvey Oswald on live television, November 24, 1963

Pending: Appeal of murder conviction; new trial granted

Cancer diagnosis came 30 days before scheduled new trial. Told family and visitors "they" were injecting him with cancer cells. Denied access to independent physicians. Died in custody.

ADDITIONAL CASE FILES: Sullivan, W.C. (FBI, hunting accident, 1977); Bowers, L.E. (grassy knoll witness, auto accident, 1966); Hunter, W.D. (Long Beach PD, shot in police station, 1964); Koethe, J. (journalist, karate chop to throat, 1964); Howard, T.H. (Ruby attorney, heart attack, 1965); Cheramie, R. (warned of assassination 11/20, hit-and-run, 1965). Complete enumeration maintained under separate cover (HA-77-0342-A).

• • •

VI.STATISTICAL CONCLUSIONS

Observed mortality within the Dallas Cohort exceeds actuarial expectations by a factor of 5.2x over the study period. This variance is not distributed evenly across time; mortality spikes correlate with:

Immediate post-assassination period (1963-1966): Investigation and Warren Commission
Garrison investigation (1967-1969)
Church Committee hearings (1975-1976)

The cause-of-death distribution is profoundly anomalous. Violent death (homicide, suicide, accident) accounts for 70% of cohort mortality, compared to 28% in the general population of similar age and demographic profile.

1 in 10¹⁷ PROBABILITY OF OBSERVED VARIANCE BY CHANCE

The timing correlation between scheduled testimony and death—particularly the three cases of death within 72 hours of subpoena or scheduled appearance—represents a statistical anomaly that cannot be explained by standard actuarial models.

It is beyond the scope of this analysis to determine causation. We can only report that the observed mortality pattern in this cohort is, in actuarial terms, impossible.

VII.LIMITATIONS & CAVEATS

This analysis is subject to the following limitations:

Cohort definition may introduce selection bias; individuals were included based on investigative connection, which may correlate with higher-risk occupations or associations
Official cause-of-death determinations were accepted as given; independent verification was not possible
Some cohort members' post-1963 activities may have introduced mortality risk unrelated to the investigation
This analysis does not imply causation or criminal conduct

Notwithstanding these limitations, the magnitude of variance from expected mortality is so extreme that methodological adjustments cannot account for it. Even with aggressive correction factors applied to account for potential cohort bias, observed mortality remains at minimum 3.1x expected values.

Further investigation is recommended.

• • •

I've been doing this work for twenty-three years. Exposed populations—asbestos workers, combat veterans, coal miners. I know what elevated mortality looks like.

I've never seen numbers like this.

The model doesn't break. The model can't break. That's the point of a model—it accounts for variance, for outliers, for the thousand small ways that life deviates from the mean. That's what the confidence intervals are for.

But these numbers break the model.

I don't know what happened in Dallas. I only know that whatever happened, it didn't stop on November 22nd. And it didn't stop with Lee Oswald. The killing went on. The dying went on. And nobody seems to have noticed the pattern.

Or maybe they noticed. Maybe that was the point.

— R.E.H.